China Plans to Cut State Investment to Cool Economy

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- China's government will trim spending next year, boosting state efforts to slow economic growth to a more sustainable pace, Vice Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said.
In the first eight months of the year, the central government's investment in roads, bridges and other fixed assets rose 4.3 percent to 501 billion yuan ($61 billion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Including spending by local governments and state-controlled companies, investment jumped 26 percent to 1.86 trillion yuan.
``We will reduce the size of the budget deficit and cut public investment,'' Lou said at a Beijing conference attended by senior government officials. ``The success we have achieved in adjusting economic growth is still preliminary and incremental.''
Expansion in the world's seventh-largest economy eased to 9.1 percent in the third quarter from 9.6 percent in the previous three months as the government restricted lending and investment. The central bank on Oct. 28 raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nine years and the State Information Center forecast growth will ease to 8.7 percent this quarter.
The government is trying to cool expansion in industries including autos, steel and cement it says are expanding too rapidly, clogging transport links and straining supplies of electricity and raw materials. Central bank Deputy Governor Li Ruogu said last month growth of 7 percent to 8 percent would allow for a healthy economy for the next two decades.
Investment
Growth is expected to slow to 8.5 percent next year from an estimated 9.3 percent in 2004, the State Information Center said in its 2005 China Industry Development Report, which was released at the conference. The center is a research unit of the State Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning body.
The median forecast of eight economists in a Bloomberg News survey this month was for growth to slow to 8.4 percent in 2005 from an estimated 9.2 percent this year. The economy grew a revised 9.3 percent last year, the fastest pace since 1996, as investment in factories, offices and other fixed assets surged 28 percent.
Investment increased 28 percent in the first nine months after jumping 53 percent from a year earlier in January and February. Growth may pick up again as government restrictions are having little impact, according to Wang Yu, deputy director of the monetary policy department at the People's Bank of China.
``Of 17.3 trillion yuan of projects that have been examined by the State Development and Reform Commission, only 1 percent have been cancelled,'' he said at the conference. ``Inflationary pressures still exist.''
Inflation
Fixed-asset investment will probably rise 21 percent this quarter and inflation is expected to average 3.8 percent, the State Information Center said in its report. Inflation is forecast to average 4 percent both this year and next, it said.
China's inflation rate fell to 5.2 percent in September from a seven-year high of 5.3 percent in each of the previous two months.
Retail sales, which the government is counting on to sustain economic growth as investment cools, rose 14 percent in September and will probably increase 13 percent this quarter, the State Information Center predicted. Consumer spending will probably account for 57.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, 2.1 percentage points more than in 2003, it said.
Export growth is projected to slow to 21 percent in 2005 from an estimated 31 percent this year and imports are likely to climb 23 percent after surging about 38 percent in 2004, the report said. The State Information Center forecast a $2.8 billion trade deficit for next year and a $4.5 billion surplus for 2004.
M2, the broadest measure of the money supply, is expected to increase 16 percent to 17 percent next year, it forecast. The indicator, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 14 percent in September, staying within the central bank's 17 percent target for a fourth straight month.
People's Bank of China's Wang said money supply growth is ``within a reasonable range.''

China Says It Will Pursue a `More Flexible' Currency

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- China's central bank said it plans to ``create a more flexible exchange-rate mechanism,'' responding to an International Monetary Fund recommendation that the yuan's peg should be relaxed.
``We will take measures in various ways to further this reform, in a gradual and steady manner,'' the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its Web site. In keeping with earlier government comments, it didn't give a timetable. The IMF said yesterday that a more flexible currency would help China achieve a gradual economic slowdown.
China buys dollars to ensure the yuan stays at about 8.3 per U.S. dollar. The government is concerned that a loosening of its nine-year-old currency peg might trigger capital inflows, hampering state efforts to cool the economy, according to the IMF report. Investment from abroad forces the government to issue more yuan, boosting the money supply.
China wants some ``fluctuation'' in the yuan while limiting exchange-rate movements, Guo Shuqing, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, was cited by China Reform Daily as saying on Nov. 4.
The Singapore dollar yesterday rose to its strongest in almost five years, leading a rally in Asian currencies, on speculation China will allow the yuan to gain in the months ahead.
Asian Currencies Advance
``The yuan appreciating gives more room for Asian currencies to follow,'' Thio Chin Loo, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore, said yesterday.
Singapore's currency yesterday rose 0.2 percent to close at S$1.6593 per U.S. dollar. It rose to S$1.6529, the strongest since Jan. 5, 2000. The Taiwan dollar climbed as high as NT$33.025, the most since April 27, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It may advance to NT$33 by year-end, Thio said.
The South Korean won gained 0.3 percent to 1,110.55 against the dollar at its close at 4 p.m. Seoul time, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.
The yuan ``policy is being discussed more frequently and with a bit more detail,'' David Simmonds, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Singapore, said yesterday. ``The idea that discussion about some sort of policy change is a meaningful one and they are preparing to make some sort of adjustment at some point is entirely credible.''
His bank expects China will peg its yuan to a basket of currencies in the middle of 2005.
Forecasts
Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expects China to ease its yuan peg before the end of this year. JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts it will happen in three to six months.
Currency traders yesterday raised bets the yuan will gain, pushing forward contracts to a seven-month high.
The yuan would rise to 7.917 against the dollar in a year if freely traded, forward contracts showed at 4:05 p.m. yesterday in Hong Kong, from 7.977 late in Asia on Nov. 4. The contracts allow investors to bet on the future value of a currency that isn't fully convertible or hedge investments that are denominated in it.
The gap between the fixed exchange rate and the future value of the yuan implied by the forward contracts widened to -0.3600, compared with -0.3000 late yesterday in Asia. The gap expanded to as much as -0.3850, the widest discount since April 2.
China has imposed lending and investment restrictions as it tries to slow growth from a seven-year high of 9.3 percent last year. The central bank on Oct. 28 raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nine years and Vice Finance Minister Lou Jiwei today said the state will invest less next year to help bring about a sustainable pace of growth.
Cut Investment
``We will reduce the size of the budget deficit and cut public investment,'' Lou said at a Beijing conference attended by senior government officials. ``The success we have achieved in adjusting economic growth is still preliminary and incremental.''
Expansion in the world's seventh-largest economy eased to 9.1 percent in the third quarter from 9.6 percent in the previous three months and the State Information Center predicts growth will ease to 8.7 percent this quarter.
The government is trying to cool expansion in industries including autos, steel and cement it says are expanding too rapidly, clogging transport links and straining supplies of electricity and raw materials. Central bank Deputy Governor Li Ruogu said last month growth of 7 percent to 8 percent would allow for a healthy economy for the next two decades.
Inflationary Pressure
Growth is expected to slow to 8.5 percent next year from an estimated 9.3 percent in 2004, the State Information Center said in its 2005 China Industry Development Report, which was released at the conference.
The center, a research unit of the State Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning body, said it expects fixed-asset investment to rise 21 percent this quarter and inflation to average 3.8 percent.
M2, the broadest measure of the money supply, is expected to increase 16 percent to 17 percent next year, the report said. The indicator, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 14 percent in September, staying within the central bank's 17 percent target for a fourth straight month.
``The current money supply growth is basically appropriate,'' the central bank said in today's statement. Still, ``we see a comparatively large amount of fixed-asset investment and inflationary pressure.''
Fixed-asset investment rose 28 percent in the first nine months, outpacing the economy's 9.5 percent growth. Inflation slowed to 5.2 percent in September from a seven-year high of 5.3 percent in each of the previous two months.

BUSH WINS

Kerry calls Bush to concede

(CNN) -- Democratic Sen. John Kerry phoned President Bush on Wednesday to
concede the presidential election, aides in both camps said.



President Bush was to deliver a victory statement at 3 p.m. ET, Bush aides said.
Sen. Kerry's
aides
said he was expected to make a concession speech at 1 p.m. ET at Faneuil Hall in
Boston, Massachusetts.



A Kerry adviser said the campaign had concluded that the too-close-to-call
battleground state of Ohio was not going to come through for the Democrats.



The adviser said there was no way to gain votes on Bush without an "exhaustive
fight," something that would have "further divided this country."



Kerry called Bush at his Oval Office desk about 11:02 a.m. ET, White House
spokesman Scott McClellan said. During the brief conversation, Bush told the
senator he was "an admirable, worthy opponent."



"You waged one tough campaign," McClellan quoted the president as saying. "I
hope you are proud of the effort you put in. You should be."



Kerry's phone call came a few hours after White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card
announced that the Bush campaign was convinced the president had won
re-election.



"President Bush decided to give the respect of more time to reflect on the
results of this election," Card told GOP supporters at the Reagan Federal
Building and International Trade Center in Washington.



"We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286
electoral votes," Card said. (Transcript of Card's comments)



Ahead in the popular vote by more than 3.7 million votes, the president moved
tantalizingly close to winning an Electoral College majority with a lead in the
key battleground state of Ohio, though the Buckeye State remained too close for
CNN to call. (Electoral College)



"President Bush's decisive margin of victory makes this the first presidential
election since 1988 in which the winner received a majority of the popular
vote," said Card, referring to the White House victory by Bush's father,
President George H.W. Bush. "And in this election, President Bush received more
votes than any presidential candidate in our country's history."



So far, Bush is projected to have won 28 states, with 254 electoral votes, and a
win in Ohio would assure him of at least 274 votes, more than the 270 he needs
for a majority Electoral College. (Small inroads make difference for Bush)



Kerry has a projected 252 electoral votes.



A top adviser for Kerry had said Wednesday morning the campaign would determine
its plan of action after looking at the "real numbers" in Ohio. The adviser said
the Kerry team "won't make this a mystery too long."



Sen. John Edwards told a crowd early Wednesday at Copley Square in Boston,
Massachusetts: "We will fight for every vote. You deserve no less."



Card claimed an important psychological victory in the nation's popular vote and
said that in addition to Ohio the campaign was putting Iowa and New Mexico in
the "winner's column as well." (CNN has no projection yet for Iowa and New
Mexico.)



Bush leads in Ohio by more than 136,000 votes, with 100 percent of precincts
reporting, according to CNN data.



Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell issued orders for counties by 2 p.m.
Wednesday to report total numbers of provisional ballots. Counting of those
ballots will not begin until Thursday, according to Blackwell's directive.



It is not clear how long the ballot-counting will take. Initially, Blackwell
said the counting of provisional and absentee ballots would not begin for 11
days.



He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots
but said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.



While he said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is
"trending toward 175,000."



Blackwell suggested that "everybody just take a deep breath and relax."



In another key battleground state, Kerry is projected the winner in Wisconsin.



Iowa election officials blamed broken machines, a delay in opening absentee
ballots and apparent fatigue for delaying the secretary of state's report of a
final count until some time Wednesday.



New Mexico is too close to call and will not release presidential election
results until later Wednesday because thousands of absentee ballots remain
uncounted, according to a spokesman for the secretary of state.



The key turning point in Tuesday's election came when Bush carried Florida,
which the president won four years ago by just 537 votes after a lengthy
dispute. This time around, though, there was no question who won the Sunshine
State, where Bush's margin was more than 370,000 votes. (Special Report: America
Votes 2004)



Few states switched from the party of four years ago. New Hampshire, which Bush
narrowly won in 2000, went for Kerry. Bush has so far carried no state carried
by Democrat Al Gore four years ago, although he leads in two, Iowa and New
Mexico.



GOP projected to keep control of Congress

Republicans are projected to retain control of the House and Senate, adding to
their majorities in both chambers with strong showings in Southern states.
(Senate, House)



In South Dakota, former GOP Rep. John Thune claimed victory over the Senate's
top Democrat, Minority Leader Tom Daschle.



GOP candidates are projected to win open Democratic seats in four Southern
states and were ahead in a fifth, Florida. The party also is projected to keep
vulnerable Republican seats in Oklahoma and Kentucky and to lead in a third,
Alaska.



The only GOP setbacks were projected in Illinois, where rising Democratic star
Barack Obama took the seat vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, and in
Colorado, where Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar is projected to beat
beer magnate Pete Coors in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Ben
Nighthorse Campbell. (Senate)



Those results, coupled with the projected Daschle loss in South Dakota, would
give the Republicans a net gain of four seats, making the lineup in the new
Senate 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and one independent.



Daschle could be the first Senate party leader to lose his seat in 52 years.



In the battle for the 435 House seats, Republicans are projected to retain their
majority, winning 230 seats -- a net gain of at least four seats. CNN projects
Democrats with 202 seats and one independent. (House)



Two more seats will be decided in a Louisiana runoff in December.



GOP candidates are projected to pick up six Democratic seats -- five in Texas,
where a controversial redistricting plan pushed by House Majority Leader Tom
DeLay redrew the state's map to make it more Republican-friendly.



In addition, two other veteran Texas Democrats forced by the new map to run
against Republican incumbents -- Reps. Charles Stenholm and Martin Frost -- also
are projected to lose.



Democrats are projected to take a Republican seat in Illinois, where Melissa
Bean defeated veteran GOP Rep. Phil Crane.



If projections hold, it will be the sixth consecutive election in which the GOP
has held the majority.



Of the 11 gubernatorial races, close contests are expected in Missouri, New
Hampshire and Washington.



In Indiana, CNN is projecting a big win for former Bush administration official
Mitch Daniels over Indiana Gov. Joe Kernan.



Ballot measures

Six months after gay and lesbian couples won the right to marry in
Massachusetts, opponents of same-sex marriage struck back Tuesday, with voters
in 11 states projected to approve constitutional amendments codifying marriage
as exclusively being between a man and a woman.



California voters, who faced 16 statewide ballot measures, are projected to pass
a measure to establish a constitutional right to conduct research using stem
cells and to authorize $3 billion for such research.



A ballot measure approving the use of marijuana for medical reasons is projected
to pass in Montana.



Colorado voters are projected to reject a proposal to change its winner-take-all
to allocated electoral votes for presidential candidates.



A Florida measure to require parental notification before minors can obtain an
abortion is projected to passed.



Gambling is another hot ballot issue, with six states deciding 13 measures.



CNN's John King, Suzanne Malveaux and Kelly Wallace contributed to this report.



　

China closing on No. 3 trade spot

CNN) -- China is closing fast on Japan and is likely to overtake it this year as the world's No. 3 trading nation behind the United States and Germany, new figures show.
China already imports more goods than Japan and almost certainly will surpass it in merchandise exports in 2004.
World Trade Organization data for 2003 shows Japan had merchandise imports and exports of $854.7 billion, just ahead of China's combined total of $854 billion.
When services trade is added, Japan's total grew by $180.9 billion to $1035.6 billion.
China's much smaller services sector added $101.3 billion, for a final total of $955.3 billion.
The two Asian trading giants are still well behind front-runner the United States, with total trade in goods and services of $2529.1 billion, and second-placed Germany, with a total of $1636.4 billion.
France and the United Kingdom occupy the fifth and sixth spots in global trade flows.
Japan is the world's second-largest economy behind the United States, while China ranks No. 6 behind Germany, the UK and France.
But China's red-hot economic growth this year means it is gaining rapidly on the industrialized nations, both in consumption and gross domestic product.
Even with a government-induced cooling of investment in some sectors, China's economy grew at 9-percent plus in the year to the end of September.
China hikes rates
In a further attempt to cool its overheated economy, China raised interest rates last week for the first time in nine years, pushing the key rate to 5.81 percent.
According to Chinese government data, merchandise imports and exports in the first eight months of this year rose 38 percent from a year earlier to reach $722 billion.
In comparison, Japan's merchandise trade rose 20 percent to $658 billion.
If the trend continues through to the end of 2004, China's merchandise trade should comfortably top $1 trillion, while Japan will get to about $980 billion.
But inflation, high oil prices and last week's interest rate hike could all weigh on the final Chinese trade figure.
China's trade with key partners such as the United States, the European Union, Japan and East Asia has grown rapidly in recent years, particularly since China's entry into the WTO at the end of 2001.
But that growth has prompted protests from the U.S. and Europe, which claim that an artificially low value for the Chinese currency gives the country an unfair competitive advantage in its trade dealings.
Analysts such as Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong-based chief economist Andy Xie welcomed Beijing's interest rate increase last week, seeing it as the best chance for the Chinese economy to achieve a soft landing.
Xie believes the rate rise was the first of many to come.
"China will likely track the (U.S.) Fed rate hikes in the coming months," he noted in a commentary after the rate rise.

Hallowmas

(All Saint's Day)
I hadn't fall asleep last night , I don't know why
maybe I miss my mom...
I wanted to call mom but the card's balance is not enough
It is my first time feel helpness,scared and lonely in a foreign country...
Pacific Ocean separate China and Canada gosh I can't continue imaging..
I am near 19 but i don't think I am a dault, I am still a baby :P
Then I open the computer and finish my university's application.

Okay stop here the next thing i must do is TOEFL and wait for my offer : )
Today is the first day of November I must look it as the begining of my success!
I must study hard as much as I can
I think I can achieve my dream!

First Day

这是我的第一个blog
什么都不会呵呵 要多学习 以后我就
post in EN 了 先自我祝贺一下 呵呵

今天和妈妈姨姨们通了话 还是老样子 对我充满希望
我不知道能不能完成任务
唉 还说什么好那？
努力吧... ...